On Thursday night, Tucker Carlson devoted his opening monologue to President Trump’s dwindling chances of victory. My colleague, Bonchie, covered Carlson’s warning here.
CNN was quick on Friday to give Joe Biden all of the electoral votes (more than 400) that Fox News’ latest poll indicates he would win if the election were held today. (It’s worth noting that Fox News polls are conducted by Siena College for the New York Times.) The Fox results, unfortunately, were not that far off from the rest of the major polls. The Real Clear Politics average of the national polls shows Biden a solid ten points ahead of Trump and polls for the battleground ground states show Biden with steep leads.
The New York Times / Siena College Poll: Biden Leads Trump in Six Key Battleground States https://t.co/an3ESnj7vq
— SienaResearch (@SienaResearch) June 25, 2020
Wall Street Journal columnist Peggy Noonan’s assessment of President Trump’s chances for reelection were even more dismal. Her position is summed up by her title, “The Week it Went South for Trump.” Her lede says,”He hasn’t been equal to the crises. He never makes anything better. And everyone kind of knows.” Noonan’s dislike of the President is well-known, but she still makes some valid points.
On Friday morning, The Wall Street Journal’s editorial board joined the growing chorus of those predicting his electoral doom. They write that Sleepy Joe may soon have a new nickname – President-elect! %$*&!
The op-ed makes the point that he has no clear message for his second term “beyond four more years of himself.” (Biden has no clear message for his candidacy except ‘I can beat Trump.’)
The editors write that Trump was doing well with his daily coronavirus briefings until he turned them into “brawls with the bear-baiting press.” When he does talk about the pandemic, “his default is defensive self-congratulation.” I have to say this is true. He frequently takes credit for saving millions of lives.
Trump’s approval numbers have been slowly falling and they’re currently closing in on 40%, a level that spelled doom for Presidents George H.W. Bush and Jimmy Carter.
The editors mention a recent tweet in which he said a 75-year old man who was pushed by police in Buffalo might be an antifa activist. He offered no evidence.
Since racial division is front and center at the moment, the editors would like to see Trump address it:
Americans don’t like racial enmity and they want their President to reduce it. Mr. Trump has preached racial harmony on occasion, but he gives it all back with riffs that misjudge the national moment. His “law and order” message might resonate if disorder and rioting continue through the summer, but only if Mr. Trump is also talking about racial reconciliation and opportunity for all.
They note that swing voters have fallen away in the last two months.
This includes suburban women, independents, and seniors who took a risk on him in 2016 as an outsider who would shake things up. Now millions of Americans are close to deciding that four more years are more risk than they can stand…
His recent events in Tulsa and Arizona were dominated by personal grievances. He resorted to his familiar themes from 2016 like reducing immigration and denouncing the press, but he offered nothing for those who aren’t already persuaded.
On Thursday, Biden made his first public appearance in nearly three months. He told his audience that over 120 million Americans had died of the coronavirus which he later corrected. But he left the podium without taking a single question. He’s not weighing in on the issues of the day as most presidential candidates do. Nor does he have a message beyond “he’s not Donald Trump.”
The editors say that some Democrats are ‘literally advising Mr. Biden to barely campaign at all. Eliminate the risk of a mental stumble that will raise doubts about his declining capacity that was obvious in the primaries.”
It’s great that Tucker Carlson, the WSJ and others are giving the Trump team this wake-up call while he still has time to turn this ship around.
But even as things currently stand, not all is doom and gloom for the President. Much of the swoon has occurred over the last month and he still has four months before Election Day. Here are some points to consider.
1. Biden’s absence may be precisely why his poll numbers are increasing.
Not everyone pays attention to the primaries. Those who are really into politics follow primaries. Moreover, Democrats who are very concerned about politics follow Democratic primaries and Republicans tend to follow Republican primaries. We all watched the Democratic debates this year because the Republican nomination was not seriously contested and the stakes are so high.
Primary debates, although some of them had their moments of excitement, are generally pretty boring.
My point is that the vast majority of voters haven’t been glued to primary events and may not know that Biden is failing cognitively. They remember Biden as he was during the Obama Administration. It wasn’t until he launched his campaign in April 2019 that anything appeared amiss. And since then, he’s been gradually deteriorating. Once he starts holding rallies, even virtual rallies, and certainly when the presidential debates are held, Americans will see firsthand that Biden is not fit for office.
2. President Trump has faced increasing criticism because he has not laid out a formal, detailed agenda for his second term. These have been unprecedented times. Number one on his list will be to return America to prosperity. Voters prefer Trump to Biden on the economy. And this is something the President can and does tout. Prior to the lockdowns, he had presided over a robust economy.
Much of his agenda will be a continuation of his first term agenda. He will complete the border wall. He will continue to work out more favorable global trade relationships, he will bring pharmaceutical manufacturing back to the U.S. He vows to expand school choice and health-care choice.
Critics are right that the Trump campaign needs to formalize their agenda.
In the meantime, what is Biden’s agenda? It might be better to ask, what is the agenda of Biden’s handlers?
During his Tulsa, OK rally, Trump described Biden as a helpless puppet of the radical left. Biden will not be running the show. How could he possibly?
In a previous post, I described what a Biden presidency would look like.
It will be his Vice President and other party leaders who will make the decisions. Possible choices for a Biden running mate include Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA), former Georgia gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams, or Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA). One of these women, or perhaps another, would be the de facto president. Nancy Pelosi, AOC, Susan Rice, Sally Yates, perhaps John Kerry and Michael Bloomberg would hold lofty positions in a Biden Administration. In other words, the most progressive politicians in the party would be setting U.S. policy and they would ram through their radical socialist agenda.
3. At this point in 2016, candidate Donald Trump was seriously trailing Hillary Clinton. A Reuters/Ipsos poll taken 6/25-6/29 showed Clinton up ten points. A Pew Research poll conducted between 6/15 and 6/26 put Clinton up nine. An ABC/Washington Post poll taken 6/20-6/23 had Clinton up 12. (Source of data: Real Clear Politics)
We also have to look at the bias of the pollsters themselves. Many of them are Democrats and many Democrats suffer from Trump Derangement Syndrome.
Democrats tried hard to influence the 2016 election. Is there any reason to doubt they’ll do it again?
Whatever it takes, right?
Hot Air’s Allahpundit posted about the latest Fox News poll. His title was “Fox News’s Pollster Is Just Messing With Trump Now.” He wrote:
Fox News polls have become an “event” on social media because everyone understands that the president expects his favorite network to propagandize for him, and yet … Fox’s polling is routinely terrible for him and discouraging.
A collective thrill runs through the media each time they release one: Wait until he sees this.
I’m half-convinced that FNC’s polling bureau dropped this latest round on him purely as payback for him complaining about them all the time. “Remember how he whined about the last national poll? Let’s poll the reddish swing states he thinks are in the bag for him this fall. See how he likes those apples.”
Read the whole post here.
4. In the next two months, John Durham is expected to complete his investigation into the origins of the FBI’s counter-intelligence probe into the Trump campaign and many believe we’ll see indictments. When independent voters learn the extent of the abuse of power by Obama Administration officials, I’m pretty sure they’ll forget that Trump repeated a conspiracy theory about a 75-year-old man at a protest in Buffalo or held up a Bible at St. John’s Church.
5. Biden’s threat to withhold $1 billion in foreign aid from Ukraine unless the President agreed to fire the prosecutor who was about to question his son, Hunter Biden, will be back in the spotlight.
6. Biden denied knowing anything about the Obama Administration’s set-up of Gen. Michael Flynn in January 2017 in several interviews. Last week, the release of Peter Strzok’s notes told us not only that Biden knew, but that he was the one who came up with the idea of charging Flynn under the Logan Act.
The Trump campaign has their work cut out for them. Among other things, they need to complete a formal agenda.
President Trump told Sean Hannity last night during a Fox News town hall that hundreds of rioters and vandals have been arrested. They need to let the public know because many Americans believe his administration has done nothing to hold people accountable. I think an address to the nation would even be appropriate.
They did it once against all odds, they can do it again.
Biden is far from a shoo-in.